Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. This makes good sense. Learn more about how Pressbooks supports open publishing practices. her own conscious experience. P.S. Where, then, could the extraterrestrial have come from? Examples of this abound, even in some of the most widely accepted explanatory theories. This terminology is acceptable but can be misleading, since many theories are quite factual and many facts are highly theoretical.[1]. A biologist was concerned about the environmental effects of an insecticide being used in his area to kill mosquitos that carried equine encephalitis. The funds that fail are closed, and the manager of the one that succeeds is advertised widely. c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes Why does the speaker emphasize silence? Rabinoff.). A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. During an episode of wheezing, they found that the vocal cords, which are located in the airway leading to the lungs, formed almost a complete barricade across the passage. If you are like most people you suggest, Eight is in the set. And my reply is that yes, 8 is included, because I am thinking of the set of all whole numbers. I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. Firefighters doused the flaming Molotov cocktail and then detained the man . b. After a few seconds, I knew it was. Barbecues occur far more frequently than house fires, so they have a much higher prior probability; but when the observable outcomeway too much smokedoes not follow from the barbecue explanation, we are logically forced to the less probable explanation that it is a house fire. Nearly half the party died before an April rescue, the survivors cannibalizing the dead. The train of reasoning ran, Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. T. [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. Cognitive psychology focuses on studying ________. As with the outcome, the concern here is also with prior epistemic probabilityin this case, the probability that you would assess to the explanation prior to your making any judgment about the observable outcome. So far as I know, officials have not used backward code words in their public speeches, so the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. According to the given data. . Describes knowledge that is based on experience and observations that are rational, testable, and repeatable. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. It includes the presumption of causation. e. a and c, Which of the following is not an explanation put forth to explain athletes' aggressive behavior? Partly because this revised outcome would be false, it has not been offered; so the argument is handicapped by an outcome that leaves the luck alternative still standing. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. her own conscious experience. Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. An intellectual activity, encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. b. violence is modeled by young amateur hockey players . a. All rights reserved. First American psychologist. b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. He said he came home to discover a well-used pipe in the pocket of his bathrobe. The change in genetic characteristics of a population over time, accounts for the diversity of organisms and the unity among them. Hierarchical organization. The MIU supplier of concrete had required MIU to give one days notice of the need for concrete, but never agreed to provide it for the next day until first referring to the National Weather Service. The work is being done by whatever independent reason we already have for expecting the outcome to occur. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. Want to create or adapt books like this? Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. b. personal beliefs and attitudes Ask whether an outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations. As a consequence of organisms' ability to reproduce and of evolutionary change, populations may become better adapted to their environments. Sample answer. This condition is the logical requirement on any inductive argument that its conclusion fit appropriately with the total available evidence. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory Wilson Bryan Key, whose most famous book was titled Subliminal Seduction, has argued that Madison Avenue strategically permeates its advertisements with camouflaged sexual images that are invisible unless you look very hard for them. . d. revised frustration-aggression theory Lack noticed that on an island shared by two species of finches, ones beak was markedly smaller than the others. d. all of the above Many would argue that both the theory of evolution and creationism are equally probable because, after all, they are both theories. These youngsters had, in fact, been selected at random from among their classmates. Explanatory Impotence Explanatory impotence is the opposite of explanatory power. Then-clause is said to be unlikely without if-clause. d. all of the above The explanations prior probabilitythat is, its probability prior to judging whether the observable outcome is truemust not be implausibly low and it must be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. Reject explanatory arguments that have unfalsifiable explanations; they are in principle unable to satisfy the first part of the total evidence condition. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that Suppose, for example, that on a camping trip to the mountains you say to your friend, This pot of water boiled quickly at this altitude; so all water boils quickly at this altitude. The premise and conclusion are both about the boiling of water at this altitude. A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Which of the following exemplifies the unconditional positive regard component of client-centered therapy? The reading in Paris, at sea level, was 30 inches; at the base of the Puy-de-Dome, at 1,300 feet, it was about 28.7 inches; and at the mountains peak, at 4,800 feet, it was about 25.2 inches. Exp. Explanatory Impotence Explanatory impotence is the opposite of explanatory power. Delayed on the way west in 1846, 87 pioneers were stranded in late October by heavy snows in the Sierra. D. It excludes the presumption of a. with the intent to harm physically. Thousands of lives are going to be wrecked over this. At least one source of income was going to be wrecked. An even subtler example can be found in academic discussions of the theory that punishment motivates learning better than does reward. a. when participants are losing The only difference is that Geller claims that he is not using deception. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. New evidence shows that optimists live longer. Step 2. WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. e. Raise the level of coaching, with an emphasis on fair play, especially with younger athletes. If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and deception has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. Practically speaking, however, explanations that do precede their observable outcomes are often logically stronger. C. It's correlated, but not causal. Is the if-clause offered as superior to alternative explanations of the then-clause? The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. Which occurs more frequentlyburglars or butterfingers? Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. Further, it is not necessary for the prior probability of the explanation to be high; if the explanation were already highly probable, there would be no need for the argument! So far as anyone at the end of the 17th century had been able to tell, the motion of comets was utterly irregular. How often do people call an expensive plumber over a faulty shower nozzle when it could be easily unscrewed and replaced with a $5 part? Is the frequently observed, poorly understood, phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment. When was psychology accepted as an academic discipline? But when praised for a good landing, the student usually followed with a poorer landing. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. hypothesis? observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? Then it is a deductive argument and commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent. An observable outcome for which there are fewer possible explanations is that much more improbableand, thus, is that much logically stronger. Look for deception as an alternative explanation. Applying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? Explanatory arguments come in several varieties. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. So I add the premise. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. It must generate testable predictions. d. internal versus external Explanatory arguments are probably the most fundamental and frequently used of all arguments, both in science and in everyday life. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. His left arm has been injured. Normally scientists can trace meteorites back to comets and asteroids, debris left over from the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. It makes no statement with respect to causation. Which of the following choices correctly describes a double-blind test? d. They see it as part of their role. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles Fallacy of affirming the consequent. If it is a singular explanation, you can ask if it is the sort of thing that is known to happen, and if it tends to happen more frequently than do the alternatives. Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? Second, its explicit premisethis water boiled quicklyis the observable outcome of the explanation. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues by David Carl Wilson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted. Searching for a once volcanic place of origin, researchers ruled out both Venus, because the atmosphere is too thick for such a rock to have escaped, and the moon, since it stopped erupting 3 billion years ago. When an explanations prior probability is extremely low, another alternative explanation is deception. H. Huxley, letter, September 23, 1860. The lights in this old house keep flickering. we know that, option c. An increase in fam. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation. Is the foundation of all scientific experiments. In some explanatory arguments, the explanatory theory is first invented, then the observable outcome is predicted and looked for. And, though you may not find the ifthen premise, there are two things you can always expect to find if the argument is explanatory: reference to the explanation, often with a discussion of why it is better than alternative explanations; and reference to the observable outcome, often with a discussion of how unlikely that outcome would otherwise Another example is the pronouncement of Romans 8:28 that all things work together for good for those that love God. Some Christians will take any outcome at all to be, in some sense or other, good and thus to be evidence for the truth of this saying. Could you find out for me which five days that man is on the road? WebIntrospection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. And the argument concludes that the explanation is thus true. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. When it did come true, it was often counted as reason to believe that the oracle had special powers. Clearly, the plumber explanation has a much lower prior probability than does the affair explanation. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . C. It's But you would have done far better to propose, Seven is not in the set. If you had been right, you not only would have confirmed your preferred even-numbers answer, but also you would have ruled out the whole-numbers alternativethereby improving the logical support for your answer. e. reactive-instrumental aggression theory. If vitamin C helps prevent colds, then the group taking vitamin C has substantially fewer colds than the group taking the placebo. 1& 0\\ It must establish an alternative explanation for a phenomenon. Sample exercise. 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